Early postoperative fever as a predictor of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy: a single-center retrospective observational study

Abstract

Abstract Background The connection between early postoperative fever and clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate this association and assess the predictive value of early postoperative fever for CR-POPF. Methods This retrospective observational study included adult patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy at a tertiary teaching hospital between 2007 and 2019. Patients were categorized into those with early postoperative fever (≥ 38 °C in the first 48 h after surgery) and those without early postoperative fever groups. Weighted logistic regression analysis using stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting (sIPTW) and multivariable logistic analysis were performed. The c-statistics of the receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated to evaluate the impact on the predictive power of adding early postoperative fever to previously identified predictors of CR-POPF. Results Of the 1997 patients analyzed, 909 (45.1%) developed early postoperative fever. The overall incidence of CR-POPF among all the patients was 14.3%, with an incidence of 19.5% in the early postoperative fever group and 9.9% in the group without early postoperative fever. Early postoperative fever was significantly associated with a higher risk of CR-POPF after sIPTW (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34–2.22; P < 0.001) and multivariable logistic regression analysis (adjusted OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.42–2.49; P < 0.001). The c-statistics for the models with and without early postoperative fever were 0.76 (95% CI, 0.73–0.79) and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.72–0.78), respectively, showing a significant difference between the two (difference, 0.02; 95% CI, 0.00–0.03; DeLong’s test, P = 0.005). Conclusions Early postoperative fever is a significant but not highly discriminative predictor of CR-POPF after pancreaticoduodenectomy. However, its widespread occurrence limits its applicability as a predictive marker.