Association between haemoglobin A1c and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in middle-aged and older Koreans: a prospective cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Background This study aimed to examine associations between haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels over time and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in middle-aged and older Koreans. Methods Using 16 years of follow-up data from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study, we analysed 9294 individuals aged 40–69 years with no history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or cancer. Participants were divided into a known diabetes group and five groups categorized by HbA1c levels (< 5.0%, 5.0–5.4%, 5.5–5.9%, 6.0–6.4%, and ≥ 6.5%). Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality associated with HbA1c levels were calculated using a conventional and a time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model. Restricted cubic spline models were fitted to investigate the relationship between continuous HbA1c levels and mortality among people without known diabetes. Subgroup analyses were performed for age, sex, smoking, hypertension, liver diseases, and red blood cell counts. Results During a median follow-up period of 15.7 years, there were 944 deaths, including 185 deaths from CVD, 359 from cancer, and 125 from all external causes. Compared with participants with HbA1c levels of 5.5–5.9%, multivariate-adjusted HRs and 95% confidence intervals for all-cause death of participants with levels < 5.0%, 5.0–5.4%, 6.0–6.4%, and ≥ 6.5% and participants with known diabetes were 1.84 (1.35–2.51), 1.13 (0.95–1.34), 1.30 (1.04–1.62), 1.37 (0.97–1.93), and 2.03 (1.70–2.44), respectively. The risk of cancer mortality was significantly increased in HbA1c < 5.0% (HR, 2.21; 95% CI 1.42–3.44) and known diabetes (HR, 1.60; 95% CI 1.18–2.15). When we performed diverse subgroup analyses, low HbA1c levels at baseline were strongly associated with mortality in participants with liver diseases. Conclusions We found U-shaped associations between HbA1c levels at baseline and over time and all-cause mortality in middle-aged and older Koreans. Additionally, the risk of cancer mortality increased both in low and high HbA1c groups, but CVD mortality increased only in high HbA1c group. In particular, people with liver diseases and low HbA1c levels had a high risk of all-cause mortality. Therefore, more careful management of these groups is suggested to identify any deteriorating health conditions. Graphical abstract