Development of machine learning models for patients in the high intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma incidence age group

Author:

Shen Jie,Yang Dashuai,Zhou Yu,Pei Junpeng,Wu Zhongkai,Wang Xin,Zhao Kailiang,Ding Youming

Abstract

Abstract Background Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) has a poor prognosis and is understudied. Based on the clinical features of patients with ICC, we constructed machine learning models to understand their importance on survival and to accurately determine patient prognosis, aiming to develop reference values to guide physicians in developing more effective treatment plans. Methods This study used machine learning (ML) algorithms to build prediction models using ICC data on 1,751 patients from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database and 58 hospital cases. The models’ performances were compared using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, C-index, and Brier scores. Results A total of eight variables were used to construct the ML models. Our analysis identified the random survival forest model as the best for prognostic prediction. In the training cohort, its C-index, Brier score, and Area Under the Curve values were 0.76, 0.124, and 0.882, respectively, and it also performed well in the test cohort. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis revealed that the model could effectively determine patient prognosis. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first study to develop ML prognostic models for ICC in the high-incidence age group. Of the ML models, the random survival forest model was best at prognosis prediction.

Funder

Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province

National Natural Science Foundation of China

National Key Research and Development Program of China

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

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