Prognostic impact of changes in aortic stiffness for cardiovascular and mortality outcomes in individuals with type 2 diabetes: the Rio de Janeiro cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Background The prognostic importance of changes in aortic stiffness for the occurrence of adverse cardiovascular outcomes and mortality has never been investigated in patients with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to evaluate it in a cohort of 417 patients. Methods Changes in aortic stiffness were assessed by 2 carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (CF-PWV) measurements performed over a 4-year period. Multivariable Cox analysis examined the associations between changes in CF-PWV, evaluated as a continuous variable with splines and as categorical ones (quartiles and stable/reduction/increase subgroups), and the occurrence of total cardiovascular events (CVEs), major adverse CVEs (MACEs), and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Results Over a median follow-up of 8.2 years after the 2nd CF-PWV measurement, there were 101 total CVEs (85 MACEs) and 135 all-cause deaths (64 cardiovascular). As a continuous variable, the lowest risk nadir was at -2.5%/year of CF-PWV change, with significantly higher risks of mortality associated with CF-PWV increases, but no excess risks at extremes of CF-PWV reduction. Otherwise, in categorical analyses, patients in the 1st quartile (greatest CF-PWV reductions) had excess risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratios [HRs]: 2.0–2.7), whereas patients in 3rd quartile had higher risks of all outcomes (HRs: 2.0–3.2), in relation to the lowest risk 2nd quartile subgroup. Patients in the 4th quartile had higher risks of all-cause mortality. Categorization as stable/reduction/increase subgroups was confirmatory, with higher risks at greater reductions (HRs: 1.7–3.3) and at greater increases in CF-PWV (HRs: 1.9–3.4), in relation to those with stable CF-PWV. Conclusions Changes in aortic stiffness, mainly increases and possibly also extreme reductions, are predictors of adverse cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes.