Author:
Liao Wenyan,Tao Guangwei,Chen Guodong,He Jun,Yang Chunfen,Lei Xiaohua,Qi Shuo,Hou Jiafeng,Xie Yi,Feng Can,Jiang Xinmiao,Deng Xin,Ding Chengming
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP) with a high risk of death is extremely harmful to mother and fetus. There are few models specifically designed to assess the severity of APIP. Our study aimed to establish a clinical model for early prediction of severity of APIP.
Methods
A retrospective study in a total of 188 patients with APIP was enrolled. The hematological indicators, IAP (intra-abdominal pressure) and clinical data were obtained for statistical analysis and prediction model construction.
Results
According to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, we found that red cell distribution width (RDW), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and Intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) are prediction indexes of the severity in APIP (p-value < 0.05). Our novel clinical prediction model was created by based on the above three risk factors and showed superior predictive power in primary cohort (AUC = 0.895) and validation cohort (AUC = 0.863). A nomogram for severe acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (SAPIP) was created based on the three indicators. The nomogram was well-calibrated.
Conclusion
RDW, NLR and IAP were the independent risk factors of APIP. Our clinical prediction model of severity in APIP based on RDW, NLR and IAP with predictive evaluation is accurate and effective.
Funder
Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province
Health Commission of Hunan Province
Science and Technology Program of Hunan Province
Science and Technology Research Project (Basic Applied Research Program) from Department of Science and Technology of Hengyang City
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Obstetrics and Gynecology
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