Hysteretic Behavior of Global to Regional Monsoon Area Under CO2 Ramp‐Up and Ramp‐Down

Abstract

AbstractWhen projecting future monsoon changes by carbon dioxide (CO2) pathway, most studies have analyzed precipitation responses without considering monsoon area (total area of monsoon domain, MA) variations. However, how MA responds to CO2 removal remains uncertain. This study evaluates MA variations and impacts in idealized CO2 ramp‐up (toward CO2 quadrupling), ramp‐down, and stabilized simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1. Global MA negatively overshoots (i.e., recovery with decreasing tendency beyond the original MA) during the ramp‐down period due to reduced or rapidly recovered MA in several regional monsoons, including Northern and Southern Africa, South and East Asia, and South America, showing hysteresis when comparing CO2 ramp‐up and ramp‐down periods despite similar global warming levels. These non‐linear regional MA variations come from distinct regional summer and winter precipitation variations, which are found to be mostly associated with Intertropical Convergence Zone movements and El Niño‐like response. Further, regional monsoon precipitation characteristics also vary through CO2 ramp‐up and ramp‐down periods consistently with overall hysteresis. Changes in total monsoon precipitation resemble the distinct responses of MA. Our results suggest that regions characterized by a monsoonal climate may experience reduced seasonal rainfall variations under net‐negative CO2 emissions.