Trends in the Rainfall Pattern Over the Gangetic Plain

Abstract

In recent years, the Gangetic Plain of India has witnessed a noticeable decline in the number of rainy days48. This study explores this phenomenon by analysing meteorological data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), specifically utilizing the IMD's grid with a resolution of 0.25 degrees by 0.25 degrees dataset. Through rigorous data analysis and statistical methods, we reveal a significant and quantifiable reduction in how frequently rainy days in49 this agriculturally crucial region. We calculated the rainy days decadal-wise that is 1901-10 to 2011-20 and found the decrease in rainy days. This declination in rainy days is more in the month of August (sen’s slope = -0.125) while June and September have less while July has no such declination type trends(sen’s slope = 0.0). This decline in rainy days has raised concerns about its potential impact on agriculture, water resources, and the livelihoods of the millions of people dependent on the Gangetic Plain's agrarian sector. Also, we found that the eastern part of Gangetic Plain receives more amount of rain while the western part less. So, this study emphasizes the need to comprehend how climate change is affecting rainfall patterns and the necessity of taking proactive steps to solve the problems brought about by fewer rainy days in the Gangetic Plain48.