Ensemble Modeling of Ice Sheet Dynamics in the Last Glacial Cycle

Abstract

Abstract Ensemble simulations (taking into account to the uncertainty of paleoclimate reconstructions) with a model of ice sheet dynamics for the last glacial cycle (128 kyr) are carried out. In general, the model realistically reproduces the spatial structure of the ice sheets and the heights of their domes in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as the associated changes in the ocean level. Perturbations with a sufficiently large amplitude of paleoclimate data in the model show significant differences in the results of modeling the ice sheets of the Northern Hemisphere from the data obtained for the initial paleoreconstruction, including for the Last Glacial Maximum and the time interval of 58‒51 ka (the initial part of MIS3). According to the simulation results, the uncertainty of global reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum is 2°С, which is consistent with the existing estimates.