Real-time forecast of MUF for radio paths from current data obtained from oblique sounding with continuous chirp signal-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Real-time forecast of MUF for radio paths from current data obtained from oblique sounding with continuous chirp signal

Published:2018-09-28 Issue:3 Volume:4 Page:83-91
ISSN:2500-0535
Container-title:Solar-Terrestrial Physics
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Ильин Николай¹,Ilyin Nikolay²,Бубнова Татьяна¹,Bubnova Tatyana²,Грозов Виктор¹,Grozov Viktor²,Пензин Максим¹,Penzin Maksim²,Пономарчук Сергей¹,Ponomarchuk Sergey²

Affiliation:

1. Институт солнечно-земной физики СО РАН

2. Institute of Solar Terrestrial Physics SB RAS

Abstract

We present a technique of MUF real-time forecast based on time extrapolation for maximum observed frequencies smoothed over a long-term forecast along a given path. We have validated the technique of fitting current data from the long-term forecast, using the OPEMI model, transmission curve method for short paths, and method of normal waves for long paths (over 2000 km). This technique has been tested using data obtained at the chirp sounding network of ISTP SB RAS during periods of strong and weak solar activity. The quality of the forecast has been found to significantly improve in comparison to the long-term forecast, with advance intervals of real-time forecast from 15 to 30 min. The sessions, in which the real-time forecast error is less than 10 % for 15-min advance interval, comprise from 67 to 96 % of all sessions depending on season and radio path orientation.

Publisher

Infra-M Academic Publishing House

Subject

Space and Planetary Science,Atmospheric Science,Geophysics

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