A Bayesian perspective of middle-batting position in ODI cricket

Abstract

The cricket fraternity described “an unsettled batting position of number four” as one of the major causes for India’s exit from International Cricket Council Men’s World Cup 2019. Consistent chopping and changing batsmen at the sensitive fourth batting position proved to be a disaster for team India then. Therefore, ranking of all the batsmen, in the then Indian cricket team, who were deemed to be eligible for this position remained a much-debated issue both before and after the World Cup 2019. In the present paper, Kaplan-Meir curves are used to make multiple comparisons for respective batting performances among the batsmen who have ever played in the middle order position. In this paper, frailty of these batsmen is studied through Bayesian analysis at the start of their innings and during the time-interval of transition to their best playing ability by considering respective run scores. Posterior summaries of innate player ability are obtained by deploying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm which is then used to assess and compare the individual batting performances. Estimation of incomplete innings is handled via censoring strategies.