Women’s modern pentathlon scoring systems and predictive modelling for decision support

Abstract

The purpose of the current investigation was to develop and evaluate an analytics approach to identifying the disciplines that female modern pentathletes should focus on to most improve their total points score. The study comprises of three analyses as well as the description and evaluation of an analytics approach to identify the event that a modern pentathlete should focus on to most improve their overall points. Analysis I revealed that the proportion of total points score derived from the laser run was significantly greater under the currently used scoring system than under the scoring system used prior to 2014 (p < 0.001). Analysis II considered year to year change in points scored for a set of 243 athletes who had completed performances in successive calendar years. The variability of year to year change in points was significantly influenced by discipline (p < 0.001) with the highest variability being in the laser run followed by fencing, riding and swimming. Linear and inverse regression models of year to year change were created during Analysis III and used in a simulation package that allowed year to year change to be predicted synthesising increased emphasis being made on different disciplines. The simulation approach suggests that female athletes can expect to make the greatest gains by emphasising the laser run and fencing within training. An evaluation study using six cases largely agreed with this but there was one of the athletes whose highest actual points improvement was in riding.