Abstract
This study aimed to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Saudi Arabia's economy and to propose a strategy based on forecasting to lessen the negative effects of the pandemic while looking ahead to economic opportunities after the pandemic. The research utilized ARIMA models to predict important economic measures in Saudi Arabia, such as GDP, exports, imports, investment in assets, consumer spending, unemployment rates, inflation rates, and oil production, up to 2028, using the Box-Jenkins method. The results showed that the pandemic initially had a detrimental effect on the Saudi economy, with decreases in GDP, exports, and imports, as well as increases in unemployment and inflation. However, the study forecasts a positive recovery and growth in the economy after COVID-19. It recommends the adoption of a national policy to address the COVID-19 challenges, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive economic strategy to tackle the issues brought by the pandemic and to navigate the post-pandemic economic environment. This approach is in line with Vision 2030 and is intended to guide policymakers in developing and implementing strategies to reduce the pandemic's economic impact and support economic recovery.
Publisher
International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences
Reference52 articles.
1. Abonazel MR and Abd-Elftah AI (2019). Forecasting Egyptian GDP using ARIMA models. Reports on Economics and Finance, 5(1): 35-47.
2. Abuhasel KA, Khadr M, and Alquraish MM (2022). Analyzing and forecasting COVID‐19 pandemic in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia using ARIMA and SIR models. Computational Intelligence, 38(3): 770-783.
3. Adebiyi AA, Adewumi AO, and Ayo CK (2014). Comparison of ARIMA and artificial neural networks models for stock price prediction. Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2014: 614342.
4. Alboaneen D, Pranggono B, Alshammari D, Alqahtani N, and Alyaffer R (2020). Predicting the epidemiological outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(12): 4568.
5. Alflayyeh S, Haseebullah S, and Belhaj FA (2020). The impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on retail business in Saudi Arabia: A theoretical review. European Journal of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, 7(1): 3547-3554.