Drivers and impact of the early silent invasion of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Drivers and impact of the early silent invasion of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha

Published:2024-03-09 Issue:1 Volume:15 Page:
ISSN:2041-1723
Container-title:Nature Communications
language:en
Short-container-title:Nat Commun

Author:

Faucher Benjamin,Sabbatini Chiara E.,Czuppon Peter^ORCID,Kraemer Moritz U. G.,Lemey Philippe^ORCID,Colizza Vittoria^ORCID,Blanquart François,Boëlle Pierre-Yves,Poletto Chiara^ORCID

Abstract

AbstractSARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) circulated cryptically before being identified as a threat, delaying interventions. Here we studied the drivers of such silent spread and its epidemic impact to inform future response planning. We focused on Alpha spread out of the UK. We integrated spatio-temporal records of international mobility, local epidemic growth and genomic surveillance into a Bayesian framework to reconstruct the first three months after Alpha emergence. We found that silent circulation lasted from days to months and decreased with the logarithm of sequencing coverage. Social restrictions in some countries likely delayed the establishment of local transmission, mitigating the negative consequences of late detection. Revisiting the initial spread of Alpha supports local mitigation at the destination in case of emerging events.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Link

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46345-1.pdf

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