Abstract
AbstractResearchers and policymakers have proposed systems to detect novel pathogens earlier than existing surveillance systems by monitoring samples from hospital patients, wastewater, and air travel, in order to mitigate future pandemics. How much benefit would such systems offer? We developed, empirically validated, and mathematically characterized a quantitative model that simulates disease spread and detection time for any given disease and detection system. We find that hospital monitoring could have detected COVID-19 in Wuhan 0.4 weeks earlier than it was actually discovered, at 2,300 cases (standard error: 76 cases) compared to 3,400 (standard error: 161 cases). Wastewater monitoring would not have accelerated COVID-19 detection in Wuhan, but provides benefit in smaller catchments and for asymptomatic or long-incubation diseases like polio or HIV/AIDS. Air travel monitoring does not accelerate outbreak detection in most scenarios we evaluated. In sum, early detection systems can substantially mitigate some future pandemics, but would not have changed the course of COVID-19.
Funder
U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | National Institutes of Health
Lynch Foundation
U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | U.S. National Library of Medicine
U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
General Physics and Astronomy,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Chemistry,Multidisciplinary
Reference73 articles.
1. Kraemer, M. U. G. et al. The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Science 368, 493–497 (2020).
2. Meyerowitz-Katz, G. et al. Is the cure really worse than the disease? The health impacts of lockdowns during COVID-19. BMJ Glob. Health 6, e006653 (2021).
3. Yamey, G. & Walensky, R. P. Covid-19: Re-opening universities is high risk. BMJ 370, m3365 (2020).
4. Brauner, J. M. et al. Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19. Science 371, eabd9338 (2021).
5. Ferguson, N. M. et al. Report 9 - Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/departments/school-public-health/infectious-disease-epidemiology/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-9-impact-of-npis-on-covid-19/ (2020).