Author:
Yoshikane Takao,Yoshimura Kei
Abstract
AbstractEnsemble simulations of climate models are used to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation, and require downscaling at the local scale. Statistical downscaling methods have been used to estimate daily and monthly precipitation from observed and simulated data. Downscaling of short-term precipitation data is necessary for more accurate prediction of extreme precipitation events and related disasters at the regional level. In this study, we developed and investigated the performance of a downscaling method for climate model simulations of hourly precipitation. Our method was designed to recognize time-varying precipitation systems that can be represented at the same resolution as the numerical model. Downscaling improved the estimation of the spatial distribution of hourly precipitation frequency, monthly average, and 99th percentile values. The climate change in precipitation amount and frequency were shown in almost all areas by using the 50 ensemble averages of estimated precipitation, although the natural variability was too large to compare with observations. The changes in precipitation were consistent with simulations. Therefore, our downscaling method improved the evaluation of the climatic characteristics of extreme precipitation events and more comprehensively represented the influence of local factors, such as topography, which have been difficult to evaluate using previous methods.
Funder
Environment Research and Technology Development Fund S-20 of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan
Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency Provided by the Ministry of Environment of Japan
Water Environment and Resource research project at the Earth Observation Research Centre, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
advanced practice of watershed flood management using surface hydrological prediction system, ‘New Social Challenges’ mission area, JST-Mirai Program
Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models
Cross-ministerial Strategic Innovation Promotion Program (SIP), Cabinet Office, Government of Japan
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Cited by
3 articles.
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