Potential seismic precursors and surficial dynamics of a deadly Himalayan disaster: an early warning approach

Abstract

AbstractOn 7 February 2021, Chamoli district (Uttarakhand, India) was devastated by a deadly rock-ice avalanche that led to a large causality of more than 200 people and a huge economic loss. We found noteworthy sequence of precursory signals of main failure/detachment preceded by a dynamic nucleation phase. The rock-ice avalanche appears to have been initiated by seismic precursors which were continuously active for 2:30 h prior to main detachment. The seismic amplitude, frequency characteristics and signal-to-noise ratio variation of detected tremors indicate static to dynamic changes in nucleation phase located at the source of detached wedge. The characteristics of seismic data distinguished debris flow and hitting obstacles from other seismic sources and allowed the estimations of debris flow speed. We analyzed and verified the seismic signals with field evidences to estimate the associated impacts and velocity of dynamic flow. The proximal high-quality seismic data allowed us to reconstruct the complete chronological sequence and evaluate impacts since the initiation of nucleation phase to its advancement. Furthermore, we suggest that real-time seismic monitoring with existing network and future deployment of integrated dense network can be used for forecasting of flow events and hazard mitigation in the downstream.