Cancer survival analysis and spatial distribution during 2014–2016 in Shandong Province, China

Abstract

AbstractWe aimed to analyse cancer survival and its spatial distribution in Shandong Province. A total of 609,861 cancer cases from 2014 to 2016 were included in the analysis. Survival analysis was performed using strs in Stata. Spatial analysis was performed with GeoDa to determine measures of global and local spatial autocorrelation. Hotspot analysis was used to identify spatial clusters of high values (hotspots) and low values (cold spots) through ArcGIS. The 5-year relative survival rates were 37.85% for all cancers combined, 29.29% for males and 48.88% for females. After age standardisation, the survival rates were 34.47% for all cancers, 28.43% for males and 41.56% for females. Cancers with higher survival rates included thyroid (78.80%), breast (69.52%), uterus (64.51%) and bladder (62.54%) cancers. However, cancers with lower survival rates included pancreatic (11.34%), liver (13.19%), lung (18.39%), bone (19.71%), gallbladder (19.78%), oesophagus (24.52%), and stomach (28.85%) cancers and leukaemia (26.30%). Cancer survival rates in urban areas (37.53%) were higher than those in rural areas (32.83%). From the geographic distribution of cancer survival, we observed that the survival rate displayed a downward trend from east to west and from north to south. The hotspot analysis revealed that some counties of Qingdao, Jinan, Zibo, Dongying and Yantai cities were hotspots, whereas almost all counties of Linyi city and some counties of Weifang, Heze, Rizhao, and Dezhou cities were cold spots. In conclusion, the cancer survival rate in Shandong is still lower than that in China overall. The early diagnosis and treatment of lung and digestive tract cancers need to be further strengthened. Nevertheless, our results reflect a critical first step in obtaining and reporting accurate and reliable estimates of survival in Shandong.