Estimating the expected planting area of double- and single-season rice in the Hunan-Jiangxi region of China by 2030

Abstract

AbstractThe development of double-season rice cropping systems has made a considerable contribution toward achieving rice self-sufficiency in China. However, the planting area for double-season rice has sharply decreased in the Hunan-Jiangxi region (the most important producing region of double-season rice in China) as a result of the conversion from double- to single-season rice cropping systems (referred as the rice “double-to-single” phenomenon). Due to concerns about the negative effect of the “double-to-single” phenomenon on rice self-sufficiency in China, we have estimated the planting area of double- and single-season rice in the Hunan-Jiangxi region that will be needed by 2030 to maintain the contribution to China’s rice production, based on the most recent 10 years (2011–2020) of historical data available. The results of our analysis can provide guidance for the government’s decision-making when planning the planting area of double- and single-season rice in the Hunan-Jiangxi region.