Analysis of Covid-19 data using discrete Marshall–Olkinin Length Biased Exponential: Bayesian and frequentist approach

Abstract

AbstractThe paper presents a novel statistical approach for analyzing the daily coronavirus case and fatality statistics. The survival discretization method was used to generate a two-parameter discrete distribution. The resulting distribution is referred to as the "Discrete Marshall–Olkin Length Biased Exponential (DMOLBE) distribution". Because of the varied forms of its probability mass and failure rate functions, the DMOLBE distribution is adaptable. We calculated the mean and variance, skewness, kurtosis, dispersion index, hazard and survival functions, and second failure rate function for the suggested distribution. The DI index demonstrates that the proposed model can represent both over-dispersed and under-dispersed data sets. We estimated the parameters of the DMOLBE distribution. The behavior of ML estimates is checked via a comprehensive simulation study. The behavior of Bayesian estimates is checked by generating 10,000 iterations of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, plotting the trace, and checking the proposed distribution. From simulation studies, it was observed that the bias and mean square error decreased with an increase in sample size. To show the importance and flexibility of DMOLBE distribution using two data sets about deaths due to coronavirus in China and Pakistan are analyzed. The DMOLBE distribution provides a better fit than some important discrete models namely the discrete Burr-XII, discrete Bilal, discrete Burr-Hatke, discrete Rayleigh distribution, and Poisson distributions. We conclude that the new proposed distribution works well in analyzing these data sets. The data sets used in the paper was collected from 2020 year.