Abstract
AbstractThis study aimed to assess atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence and predictive factors in hypertensive patients and to formulate an AF risk assessment score that can be used to identify the patients most likely to develop AF. This was a cohort study of patients recruited in primary healthcare centers. Patients aged 40 years or older with hypertension, free of AF and with no previous cardiovascular events were included. Patients attended annual visits according to clinical practice until the end of study or onset of AF. The association between AF incidence and explanatory variables (age, sex, body mass index, medical history and other) was analyzed. Finally, 12,206 patients were included (52.6% men, and mean age was 64.9 years); the mean follow-up was 36.7 months, and 394 (3.2%) patients were diagnosed with AF. The incidence of AF was 10.5/1000 person-years. Age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06 per year; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05–1.08), male sex (HR 1.88; 95% CI 1.53–2.31), obesity (HR 2.57; 95% CI 1.70–3.90), and heart failure (HR 2.44; 95% CI 1.45–4.11) were independent predictors (p < 0.001). We propose a risk score based on significant predictors, which enables the identification of people with hypertension who are at the greatest risk of AF.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference38 articles.
1. World Health Organization. World Health Organization Study: Atrial Fibrillation is a Growing Global Health Concern, https://www.cedars-sinai.edu/About-Us/News/News-Releases-2013/World-Health-Organization-Study-Atrial-Fibrillation-is-a-Growing-Global-Health-Concern.aspx, (Accessed 19 September 2017).
2. Naccarelli, G. V., Varker, H., Lin, J. & Schulman, K. L. Increasing prevalence of atrial fibrillation and flutter in the United States. Am J Cardiol. 104, 1534–1539 (2009).
3. Stefansdottir, H., Aspelund, T., Gudnason, V., Arnar, D.O. Trends in the incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation in Iceland and future projections. Europace. 13, 1110–1117 (2011), Epub ahead print (2011).
4. Chugh, S.S. et al. Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study. Circulation. 129, 837–847 (2014), Epub ahead print (2013).
5. Friberg, L., Bergfeldt, L. Atrial fibrillation prevalence revisited. J. Intern Med. 274, 461–468 (2013), Epub ahead print (2013).
Cited by
8 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献