Assessment of life loss due to dam breach using improved variable fuzzy method

Abstract

AbstractIn recent years, several factors, such as frequent extreme weather, disrepair of dams, and improper management, have caused frequent dam failures, posing a significant threat to people's lives downstream. At present, the life loss is evaluated using the empirical formula method, in which the recommended approximate and threshold results are obtained through linear regression or statistical analysis. However, this method is sometimes insufficient because of the lack of a historical dataset and low availability, and it tends to simplify or ignore the influence of some factors in regression. During the research, most objects are considered as individual cases, and thus, the universality and scientificity of the application of evaluation models or parameters need further discussion. The variable fuzzy set theory features rigorous mathematical clarity and fuzziness of things and is widely used in the optimal decision evaluation model. Although, the traditional variable fuzzy evaluation method is widely used to deal with the linear variation in the index, some indexes, such as dam storage capacity and downstream population at risk, can cause non-linear problems, directly affecting the accuracy of membership evaluation results. Therefore, an improved model was proposed, where the relative difference formula was improved through logarithmic transformation and boundary constraint. The improved method was applied to the sequencing of life loss risk consequences for four reservoirs. The evaluation result was consistent with the actual situation of the disaster and the actual mortality rate. The scientificity and practicability of the improved model were verified, providing a new perspective for reservoir risk ranking and enriching the risk management theory.