Author:
Zhanghuang Chenghao,Zhang Zhaoxia,Wang Jinkui,Yao Zhigang,Ji Fengming,Wu Chengchuang,Ma Jing,Yang Zhen,Xie Yucheng,Tang Haoyu,Yan Bing
Abstract
AbstractSmall cell carcinoma of the bladder (SCCB) is a rare urological tumor. The prognosis of SCCB is abysmal. Therefore, this study aimed to construct nomograms that predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in SCCB patients. Information on patients diagnosed with SCCB during 2004–2018 was obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models analyzed Independent risk factors affecting patients' OS and CSS. Nomograms predicting the OS and CSS were constructed based on the multivariate Cox regression model results. The calibration curve verified the accuracy and reliability of the nomograms, the concordance index (C-index), and the area under the curve (AUC). Decision curve analysis (DCA) assessed the potential clinical value. 975 patients were included in the training set (N = 687) and the validation set (N = 288). Multivariate COX regression models showed that age, marital status, AJCC stage, T stage, M stage, surgical approach, chemotherapy, tumor size, and lung metastasis were independent risk factors affecting the patients' OS. However, distant lymph node metastasis instead AJCC stage is the independent risk factor affecting the CSS in the patients. We successfully constructed nomograms that predict the OS and CSS for SCCB patients. The C index of the training set and the validation set of the OS were 0.747 (95% CI 0.725–0.769) and 0.765 (95% CI 0.736–0.794), respectively. The C index of the CSS were 0.749 (95% CI 0.710–0.773) and 0.786 (95% CI 0.755–0.817), respectively, indicating that the predictive models of the nomograms have excellent discriminative power. The calibration curve and the AUC also show good accuracy and discrimination of the nomograms. To sum up, We established nomograms to predict the OS and CSS of SCCB patients. The nomograms have undergone internal cross-validation and show good accuracy and reliability. The DCA shows that the nomograms have an excellent clinical value that can help doctors make clinical-assisted decision-making.
Funder
Kunming City Health Science and Technology Talent “1000” training Project
Kunming Health and Health Commission Health Research Project
Open Research Fund of Clinical Research Center for Children's Health and Diseases of Yunnan Province
Scientific Research Fund of Education Department of Yunnan province
Department of Science and Technology of Yunnan province Kunming medicine Joint Special project
Kunming Medical Joint Project of Yunnan Science and Technology Department
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Cited by
2 articles.
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