Assessing the impacts of vaccination and viral evolution in contact networks

Abstract

AbstractA key lesson learned with COVID-19 is that public health measures were very different from country to country. In this study, we provide an analysis of epidemic dynamics using three well-known stochastic network models—small-world networks (Watts–Strogatz), random networks (Erdös–Rényi), and scale-free networks (Barabási–Albert)—to assess the impact of different viral strains, lockdown strategies, and vaccination campaigns. We highlight the significant role of highly connected nodes in the spread of infections, particularly within Barabási–Albert networks. These networks experienced earlier and higher peaks in infection rates, but ultimately had the lowest total number of infections, indicating their rapid transmission dynamics. We also found that intermittent lockdown strategies, particularly those with 7-day intervals, effectively reduce the total number of infections, serving as viable alternatives to prolonged continuous lockdowns. When simulating vaccination campaigns, we observed a bimodal distribution leading to two distinct outcomes: pandemic contraction and pandemic expansion. For WS and ER networks, rapid mass vaccination campaigns significantly reduced infection rates compared to slower campaigns; however, for BA networks, differences between vaccination strategies were minimal. To account for the evolution of a virus into a more transmissible strain, we modeled vaccination scenarios that varied vaccine efficacy against the wild-type virus and noted a decline in this efficacy over time against a second variant. Our results showed that vaccination coverage above 40% significantly flattened infection peaks for the wild-type virus, while at least 80% coverage was required to similarly reduce peaks for variant 2. Furthermore, the effect of vaccine efficacy on reducing the peak of variant 2 infection was minimal. Although vaccination strategies targeting hub nodes in scale-free networks did not substantially reduce the total number of infections, they were effective in increasing the probability of preventing pandemic outbreaks. These findings underscore the need to consider the network structure for effective pandemic control.