A Modal Rendition of ENSO Diversity

Abstract

Abstract The El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ‘diversity’ has been considered as a major factor limiting its predictability, a critical need for disaster mitigation associated with the trademark climatic swings of the ENSO. Improving climate models for ENSO forecasts relies on deeper understanding of the ENSO diversity but currently at a nascent stage. Here, we show that the ENSO diversity thought previously as ‘complex,’ arises largely as varied contributions from three leading modes of the ENSO to a given event. The ENSO ‘slow manifold’ can be fully described by three leading predictable modes, a quasi-quadrennial mode (QQD), a quasi-biennial (QB) mode and a decadal modulation of the quasi-biennial (DQB). The modal description of ENSO provides a framework for understanding the predictability of and global teleconnections with the ENSO. We further demonstrate it to be a useful framework for understanding biases of climate models in simulating and predicting the ENSO. Therefore, skillful prediction of all shades of ENSO depends critically on the coupled models’ ability to simulate the three modes with fidelity, providing basis for optimism for future of ENSO forecasts.