Topological dynamics of the 2015 South Korea MERS-CoV spread-on-contact networks

Abstract

AbstractNetwork analysis to examine infectious contact relations provides an important means to uncover the topologies of individual infectious contact networks. This study aims to investigate the spread of diseases among individuals over contact networks by exploring the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in Korea. We present several distinct features of MERS transmission by employing a comprehensive approach in network research to examine both the traced relationship matrix of infected individuals and their bipartite transmission routes among healthcare facilities visited for treatment. The results indicate that a few super-spreaders were more likely to hold certain structural advantages by linking to an exceptional number of other individuals, causing several ongoing transmission events in neighbourhoods without the aid of any intermediary. Thus, the infectious contact network exhibited small-world dynamics characterised by locally clustered contacts exposed to transmission paths via short path lengths. In addition, nosocomial infection analysis shows the pattern of a common-source outbreak followed by secondary person-to-person transmission of the disease. Based on the results, we suggest policy implications related to the redesign of prevention and control strategies against the spread of epidemics.