A calibrated measure to compare fluctuations of different entities across timescales

Abstract

AbstractA common way to learn about a system’s properties is to analyze temporal fluctuations in associated variables. However, conclusions based on fluctuations from a single entity can be misleading when used without proper reference to other comparable entities or when examined only on one timescale. Here we introduce a method that uses predictions from a fluctuation scaling law as a benchmark for the observed standard deviations. Differences from the benchmark (residuals) are aggregated across multiple timescales using Principal Component Analysis to reduce data dimensionality. The first component score is a calibrated measure of fluctuations—the reactivityRA of a given entity. We apply our method to activity records from the media industry using data from the Event Registry news aggregator—over 32M articles on selected topics published by over 8000 news outlets. Our approach distinguishes between different news outlet reporting styles: high reactivity points to activity fluctuations larger than expected, reflecting a bursty reporting style, whereas low reactivity suggests a relatively stable reporting style. Combining our method with the political bias detector Media Bias/Fact Check we quantify the relative reporting styles for different topics of mainly US media sources grouped by political orientation. The results suggest that news outlets with a liberal bias tended to be the least reactive while conservative news outlets were the most reactive.