Observations of enhanced rainfall variability in Kenya, East Africa

Author:

Kotikot Susan M.,Smithwick Erica A. H.,Greatrex Helen

Abstract

AbstractUnderstanding local patterns of rainfall variability is of great concern in East Africa, where agricultural productivity is dominantly rainfall dependent. However, East African rainfall climatology is influenced by numerous drivers operating at multiple scales, and local patterns of variability are not adequately understood. Here, we show evidence of substantial variability of local rainfall patterns between 1981 and 2021 at the national and county level in Kenya, East Africa. Results show anomalous patterns of both wetting and drying in both the long and short rainy seasons, with evidence of increased frequency of extreme wet and dry events through time. Observations also indicate that seasonal and intraseasonal variability increased significantly after 2013, coincident with diminished coherence between ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and rainfall. Increasing frequency and magnitude of rainfall variability suggests increasing need for local-level climate change adaptation strategies.

Funder

National Geographic Society early career grant

National Science Foundation BCS Award

National Science Foundation DGE Award

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

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