Modeling forecast errors for microgrid operation using Gaussian process regression

Abstract

AbstractMicrogrids, denoting small-scale and self-sustaining grids, constitute a pivotal component in future power systems with a high penetration of renewable generators. The inherent uncertainty tied to renewable power generation, typified by photovoltaic and wind turbine systems, necessitates counterbalancing mechanisms. These mechanisms encompass Energy storage systems or conventional thermal fossil-fuel generators imbued with heightened flexibility. Addressing the uncertainty stemming from renewable generators mandates a cost-effective assessment and operational strategy for said compensatory devices. To this end, myriad uncertainty factors warrant scrutiny, conceivably concretized into a unified probability distribution function (PDF) that takes into account their temporal inter-dependencies. Diverse uncertainty factors, characterized by varying marginal distributions and scales, can be assimilated into a multivariate probability distribution through a conversion to normal distributions via rank correlation. However, with the escalation in the number of uncertainty factors embraced within a microgrid context, the endeavour becomes notably intricate when aiming to define conditional probability distributions originating from joint PDFs. This paper presents a method proposing the modelling of net-load forecast error distribution, considering the interplay among uncertainty factors. The approach introduces a data-driven Gaussian process regression technique for training and validating conditional PDFs among these uncertainty factors. Notably, this approach facilitates the transformation of said factors into normal distributions while preserving their inherent marginal characteristics. The resultant conditional density function, as per the proposed methodology, exhibits enhanced suitability for estimating net-load error distribution. Consequently, the conditional density function stemming from this proposed approach demonstrates superior aptitude in approximating the distribution of net load error.