Variability of groundwater fluoride and its proportionate risk quantification via Monte Carlo simulation in rural and urban areas of Agra district, India

Abstract

AbstractThis study quantifies the groundwater fluoride contamination and assesses associated health risks in fluoride-prone areas of the city of Taj Mahal, Agra, India. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) risk model and Monte Carlo Simulations were employed for the assessment. Result revealed that, among various rural and urban areas Pachgain Kheda exhibited the highest average fluoride concentration (5.20 mg/L), while Bagda showed the lowest (0.33 mg/L). Similarly, K.K. Nagar recorded 4.38 mg/L, and Dayalbagh had 1.35 mg/L. Both urban and rural areas exceeded the WHO-recommended limit of 1.5 mg/L, signifying significant public health implications. Health risk assessment indicated a notably elevated probability of non-carcinogenic risk from oral groundwater fluoride exposure in the rural Baroli Ahir block. Risk simulations highlighted that children faced the highest health risks, followed by teenagers and adults. Further, Monte Carlo simulation addressed uncertainties, emphasizing escalated risks for for children and teenagers. The Hazard Quotient (HQ) values for the 5th and 95th percentile in rural areas ranged from was 0.28–5.58 for children, 0.15–2.58 for teenager, and 0.05–0.58 for adults. In urban areas, from the range was 0.53 to 5.26 for children, 0.27 to 2.41 for teenagers, and 0.1 to 0.53 for adults. Physiological and exposure variations rendered children and teenagers more susceptible. According to the mathematical model, calculations for the non-cancerous risk of drinking water (HQ-ing), the most significant parameters in all the targeted groups of rural areas were concentration (CW) and Ingestion rate (IR). These findings hold relevance for policymakers and regulatory boards in understanding the actual impact and setting pre-remediation goals.