Author:
Ammatawiyanon Lumpoo,Tongkumchum Phattrawan,McNeil Don,Lim Apiradee
Abstract
AbstractChikungunya fever (CHIKF) has re-emerged in the southernmost Thailand and presents a significant threat to public health. The problem areas can be identified using appropriate statistical models. This study aimed to determine the geographic epidemic patterns and high-risk locations. Data on CHIKF’s case characteristics, including age, gender, and residence sub-district, were obtained from the Office of Disease Prevention and Control of Thailand from 2008 to 2020. A logistic model was applied to detect illness occurrences. After removing records with no cases, a log-linear regression model was used to determine the incidence rate. The results revealed that two large-scale infections occurred in the southernmost provinces of Thailand between 2008 and 2010, and again between 2018 and 2020, indicating a 10-year epidemic cycle. The CHIKF occurrence in the first and second outbreaks was 28.4% and 15.5%, respectively. In both outbreaks of occurrence CHIKF, adolescents and working-age groups were the most infected groups but the high incidence rate of CHIKF was elderly groups. The first outbreak had a high occurrence and incidence rate in 39 sub-districts, the majority of which were in Narathiwat province, whilst the second outbreak was identified in 15 sub-districts, the majority of which were in Pattani province. In conclusion, the CHIKF outbreak areas can be identified and addressed by combining logistic and log-linear models in a two-step process. The findings of this study can serve as a guide for developing a surveillance strategy or an earlier plan to manage or prevent the CHIKF outbreak.
Funder
The Graduate School, Prince of Songkla University, Thailand
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference45 articles.
1. Robinson, M. C. An epidemic of virus disease in Southern province, Tanganyika Territory, in 1952–53. I. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 49, 28–32 (1955).
2. Moizéis, R. N. C. et al. Chikungunya fever: A threat to global public health. Pathog. Glob. Health 112, 182–194 (2018).
3. Thavara, U. et al. Outbreak of chikungunya fever in Thailand and virus detection in field population of vector mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus Skuse (Diptera: Culicidae). Southeast Asian J. Trop. Med. Public Health 40, 951–962 (2009).
4. Waldock, J. et al. The role of environmental variables on Aedes albopictus biology and chikungunya epidemiology. Pathog. Glob. Health 107, 224–241 (2013).
5. Javelle, E. et al. Specific management of post-chikungunya rheumatic disorders: A retrospective study of 159 cases in Reunion Island from 2006–2012. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 9, e0003603 (2015).