Evaluating elimination thresholds and stopping criteria for interventions against the vector-borne macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis, using mathematical modelling

Author:

Sharma SwarnaliORCID,Smith Morgan E.,Bilal ShakirORCID,Michael Edwin

Abstract

AbstractWe leveraged the ability of EPIFIL transmission models fit to field data to evaluate the use of the WHO Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS) for supporting Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) intervention stopping decisions. Our results indicate that understanding the underlying parasite extinction dynamics, particularly the protracted transient dynamics involved in shifts to the extinct state, is crucial for understanding the impacts of using TAS for determining the achievement of LF elimination. These findings warn that employing stopping criteria set for operational purposes, as employed in the TAS strategy, without a full consideration of the dynamics of extinction could seriously undermine the goal of achieving global LF elimination.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,Medicine (miscellaneous)

Reference44 articles.

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3. Irvine, M. A. et al. Effectiveness of a triple-drug regimen for global elimination of lymphatic filariasis: a modelling study. Lancet Infect. Dis. 17, 451–458 (2017).

4. World Health Organization. in Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis: Monitoring and Epidemiological Assessment of Mass Drug Administration: A Manual for National Elimination Programs. 22–33 (WHO, 2011).

5. Lau, C. L. et al. Detecting and confirming residual hotspots of lymphatic filariasis transmission in American Samoa 8 years after stopping mass drug administration. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 11, e0005914 (2017).

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