Long-term relative survival in uveal melanoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

Abstract Background A large proportion of patients with uveal melanoma develop metastases and succumb to their disease. Reports on the size of this proportion vary considerably. Methods PubMed, Web of Science and Embase were searched for articles published after 1980. Studies with ≥100 patients reporting ≥five-year relative survival rates were included. Studies solely reporting Kaplan-Meier estimates and cumulative incidences were not considered, due to risk for competing risk bias and classification errors. A meta-analysis was performed using random-effects and weighted averages models, as well as a combined estimate based on curve fitting. Results Nine studies and a total of 18 495 patients are included. Overall, the risk of selective reporting bias is low. Relative survival rates vary across the population of studies (I2 48 to 97% and Qp < 0.00001 to 0.15), likely due to differences in baseline characteristics and the large number of patients included (τ2 < 0.02). The 30-year relative survival rates follow a cubic curve that is well fitted to data from the random-effects inverse-variance and weighted average models (R2 = 0.95, p = 7.19E−7). The estimated five, ten, 15, 20, 25 and 30-year relative survival rates are 79, 66, 60, 60, 62 and 67%, respectively. Conclusions The findings suggest that about two in five of all patients with uveal melanoma ultimately succumb to their disease. This indicates a slightly better prognosis than what is often assumed, and that patients surviving 20 years or longer may have a survival advantage to individuals of the same sex and age from the general population.