Land use/land cover (LULC) changes modeling and susceptibility mapping using the binary logistic regression at the territorial level in eastern DR Congo

Abstract

The Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes are commonly used to determine the landscape conditions and have significant impacts on the earth's surface processes. During the last three decades, there has been an acceleration of LULC changes in Eastern DR Congo. However, there is no comprehensive overview of the drivers of these changes at the territorial level in this region, even though the knowledge of these drivers is important for land use planning and spatial modeling of environmental changes. Using the Kalehe Territory as a case study, this work sought to fill this gap by analyzing the drivers of LULC changes during the 1987-2020 period. A mixed approach combining remote sensing, Geographic Information System, and logistic regression modeling was used. The results indicated that the prominent LULC changes in the study area are deforestation, built-up area expansion, cropland expansion, and shrubland expansion. These changes are significantly influenced by biophysical factors (slope, altitude, and soil type), conservation zoning, population dynamics, and accessibility factors at different levels. The occurrence of conservation zones decreases the susceptibility to deforestation, built-up land, and cropland expansions. In contrast, the proximity factors (distance to road, artisanal mining, and locality) increase the susceptibility to LULC changes. These factors can be integrated into spatial models to forecast LULC changes susceptibility in this region. Furthermore, the establishment of future land use management policy at the territorial level in eastern DR Congo should be space-specific as the susceptibility of LULC changes shows a spatial trend.