Climate Change and Agriculture in India: Studying Long-Term Patterns in Temperature, Rainfall, and Agricultural Output

Abstract

This paper provides an estimate of the impact of climate change on agricultural gross domestic product in India. Climate change is now an established reality, and the unusual weather patterns being observed in various parts of the world in the last 30 years is unequivocally due to variations in temperature and rainfall. The long-term trend pattern of the temperature and rainfall in India is studied, which clearly shows a distinct rise in mean temperature and declining trend rainfall after 1980. ARIMA analysis is used to generate the predictive values for temperature and rainfall, which are then used as explanatory variables along with nonclimatic variables to estimate the impact on agricultural output using an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function. The paper clearly establishes a clear and positive correlation between climate change and loss of agricultural output. The trend pattern of long-term productivity growth factor in agriculture is also showing a declining trend, which is due to unfavorable climatic and nonclimatic factors. Climatic parameters like El Niño and sea surface temperature have emerged as key determinants of monsoon rainfall in India. The agriculture sector in India has been adversely affected by rise in mean annual minimum temperature and shown a positive correlation with the changes in monsoon rainfall and mean annual temperature.