Application of the Dynamic Standard for Assessment and Construction of Scenarios of Economic Development of the Region

Abstract

The article discusses an approach to forecasting trends and development of a particular region based on a dynamic model. The purpose of the work was to understand how the method of dynamic regulation is applicable to the construction of future scenarios, assessment and analysis of the economic sphere of the regions. The following methods were used in the study: analytical, statistical, computational-analytical, dialectical, search methods, as well as such general scientific methods as deductive and inductive methods. The main method of constructing the model is the dynamic standard method. The study is based on statistical data on the economic development of the regions of Kazakhstan for the period from 2017 to 2021. The proposed approach makes it possible to quantify the growth and development rates of regional systems and to make estimates of the achievability of the set goals. In turn, understanding the current level of development of a particular system within the region allows for forecasting the development of the system and its elements. The conducted research has shown that in the studied region there is a rather unstable situation in the field of economy, which means there is a risk of increasing social vulnerability. As a continuation of the presented research, dynamic standards for characterizing the ecological and social development of the region are supposed to be calculated.