An evolutionary maximum principle for density-dependent population dynamics in a fluctuating environment

Abstract

The evolution of population dynamics in a stochastic environment is analysed under a general form of density-dependence with genetic variation in r and K , the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, and in σ e 2 , the environmental variance of population growth rate. The continuous-time model assumes a large population size and a stationary distribution of environments with no autocorrelation. For a given population density, N , and genotype frequency, p , the expected selection gradient is always towards an increased population growth rate, and the expected fitness of a genotype is its Malthusian fitness in the average environment minus the covariance of its growth rate with that of the population. Long-term evolution maximizes the expected value of the density-dependence function, averaged over the stationary distribution of N . In the θ -logistic model, where density dependence of population growth is a function of N θ , long-term evolution maximizes E[ N θ ]=[1− σ e 2 /(2 r )] K θ . While σ e 2 is always selected to decrease, r and K are always selected to increase, implying a genetic trade-off among them. By contrast, given the other parameters, θ has an intermediate optimum between 1.781 and 2 corresponding to the limits of high or low stochasticity.