The impact of new technology

Abstract

Under what conditions can an addition to the present technology of fertility control have a measurable demographic impact and what are the central characteristics of the required technology? This paper tries to examine fertility control requirements into the foreseeable future, with regard to the characteristics of the methods themselves, the delivery systems, and the target populations. There is some discussion of the magnitudes involved, the three broad means by which fertility control can be pursued, the three key ways in which the technology can be improved and their relative merits, and the time frame within which tomorrow’s contraceptives must optimally be sought. In short, the paper tries to answer the question: how much better must the system be for given effects of fertility reduction in developing societies, in what ways, and when?