Predicting the responses of European grassland communities to climate and land cover change

Abstract

European grasslands are among the most species-rich ecosystems on small spatial scales. However, human-induced activities like land use and climate change pose significant threats to this diversity. To explore how climate and land cover change will affect biodiversity and community composition in grassland ecosystems, we conducted joint species distribution models (SDMs) on the extensive vegetation-plot database sPlotOpen to project distributions of 1178 grassland species across Europe under current conditions and three future scenarios. We further compared model accuracy and computational efficiency between joint SDMs (JSDMs) and stacked SDMs, especially for rare species. Our results show that: (i) grassland communities in the mountain ranges are expected to suffer high rates of species loss, while those in western, northern and eastern Europe will experience substantial turnover; (ii) scaling anomalies were observed in the predicted species richness, reflecting regional differences in the dominant drivers of assembly processes; (iii) JSDMs did not outperform stacked SDMs in predictive power but demonstrated superior efficiency in model fitting and predicting; and (iv) incorporating co-occurrence datasets improved the model performance in predicting the distribution of rare species. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere’.