Comprehensive evaluation system for stability of multiple dams in a uranium tailings reservoir: based on the TOPSIS model and bow tie model

Abstract

The main purposes of this study are to analyse the evaluation of tailings dam stability under multiple factors and prevent accidents more effectively by proposing a composite risk analysis model. The evaluation model combining the TOPSIS model and bow tie model is presented in this paper. Firstly, a new formula was adopted to calculate the integrated weights based on the subjective and objective weights and the theory of the TOPSIS model was introduced. Secondly, taking a uranium tailings reservoir in south China as an example, the index values and constant weights of the 10 dams are determined according to eight aspects of accumulating dam crest elevation, dam slope, mechanical properties, seepage capacity, topographical conditions, flood control capacity, rainstorm resistance capacity and earthquake resistance capacity. Thirdly, the fitting degree between the stability and ideal solution of each dam is calculated by using the TOPSIS model. The stability fitting degree of the 10 dams is 76%, 93%, 82%, 90%, 66%, 79%, 85%, 96%, 32%, 89% in sequence. This result shows that among the 10 dams, the 9 # dam ranks the lowest in stability. The actual results are in good consistency with those calculated by the TOPSIS model, which can provide a scientific and reliable new idea for the safety of other multi-index comprehensive evaluations. It is worth mentioning that it can still maintain high accuracy of dam stability evaluation under multiple indexes and multiple dams. Also, the comprehensive evaluation model proposed in this paper can more effectively reflect the subtle differences between similar evaluation objects. Fourthly, safety barriers from both the cause of the accident and the consequences was established by using the bow tie model to block the path of the accident, and to propose safety measures to make the evaluation system more complete.