Analysis and Forecasting Dynamics of Digital Transformation of Economy of the Russian Federation (on the Example of the Measurement of the Organization’s Digital Performance)

Abstract

The introduction of digital technologies in the monitoring and management activities of organizations is an important tool for the transformation of economic system at modern phase of the latest industrial and technological revolution. Currently, there is no unifed methodological apparatus for describing the state and development prospects of digital transformation. The analysis of objective patterns of the digital transformation of the Russian economy can be carried out by constructing mathematical and statistical models that make it possible to analyze the stages of digital maturity in the past and to determine the future development of projected digital phenomena.The purpose of this article lies in modelling and forecasting of dynamics of digital transformation of the activities of organizations.Digital transformation was measured based on indicators of the use of information and communication technologies in organizations, namely: Internet connection, website, purchase of goods and services via the Internet, use of software tools of the ERP, CRM, SCM class.Growth curves are one of the most common tools for modeling technological development trends. For each time series, the accuracy of four models of growth curves was assessed: the Gompertz, Weibull's, logistic and log-logistic.The practical application of this study is that the proposed approach can be used to assess trends in ICT diffusion in organizations by type of economic activity and by size to obtain a more complete characterization of digital maturity and further prospects for digital transformation of the Russian economy.