French Defense Policy: “The Copernican Revolution” or Business as Usual?

Abstract

The article examines the main trends in French defense policy at the beginning of Emmanuel Macron’s second presidential term. Throughout 2022 he made a number of statements announcing the «Copernican revolution» in defense including the transition to a war economy. However, the scale and pace of these changes are not as tremendous as it could seem at first glance. In particular, one of the basics of French defense doctrine is strengthening solidarity within the Western camp, the perception of European defense integration as an integral part of NATO. Some increase in defense budget is planned, which, nevertheless, will take place according to a long-planned schedule and not in such massive volumes as in Germany. Paris expects to maintain its presence in various regions of the world: for example, in Africa, where a new strategy will be developed after the end of the operation «Barkhane», and in Eastern Europe due to a relocation of French units and weapons there against the background of the conflict in Ukraine. The author concludes that French defense policy is experiencing the adaptation rather than a real revolution, keeping the continuity in all major aspects. In terms of Russia-France relations, it is a negative trend, since the Fifth Republic couples its policy with the membership in the collective West to an even greater extent than before, which further narrows the room for dialogue.