Identifying a Multivariate Screening Model to Predict Reading Difficulties at the Onset of Kindergarten: A Longitudinal Analysis

Abstract

The purpose of this followup study was to determine the long-term predictive validity of theoretically coherent reading measures administered during fall and winter of kindergarten. Seventy-nine children were screened using measures representing letter identification, phonological awareness, phonological memory, and rapid automatized naming. Reading achievement was measured at the end of grades 1 through 4 on passage comprehension, oral reading fluency, sight-word recognition, and phonemic decoding. A multivariate screening model incorporating letter identification, phonological awareness, and rapid automatized naming emerged as the most parsimonious model for predicting long-term reading achievement. This screening model yielded the highest correlations with oral reading fluency as the outcome measure. There was no practical significance between the fall and winter screening over the four-year period using this model. Results are interpreted as confirming the importance of a multivariate screening approach using letter identification, phonological awareness, and rapid automatized naming at the earliest time frame in kindergarten.