Active life expectancy estimates for the U.S. elderly population: A multidimensional continuous-mixture model of functional change applied to completed Cohorts, 1982

Active life expectancy estimates for the U.S. elderly population: A multidimensional continuous-mixture model of functional change applied to completed Cohorts, 1982–1996

Published:2000-08-01 Issue:3 Volume:37 Page:253-265
ISSN:0070-3370
Container-title:Demography
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Manton Kenneth G.¹,Land Kenneth C.²

Affiliation:

1. Duke University, Center for Demographic Studies, 2117 Campus Drive, Box 90408, Durham, NC 27708-0408

2. Duke University, Department of Sociology

Abstract

Abstract An increment-decrement stochastic-process life table model that continuously mixes measures of functional change is developed to represent age transitions among highly refined disability states interacting simultaneously with mortality. The model is applied to data from the National Long Term Care Surveys of elderly persons in the years 1982 to 1996 to produce active life expectancy estimates based on completed-cohort life tables. At ages 65 and 85, comparisons with extant period estimates for 1990 show that our active life expectancy estimates are larger for both males and females than are extant period estimates based on coarse disability states.

Publisher

Duke University Press

Subject

Demography

Link

http://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article-pdf/37/3/253/884579/253manton.pdf

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