Bounds on the velocity of spread of infection for a spatially connected epidemic process

Abstract

The simple (non-spatial) stochastic epidemic is generalised to allow infected individuals to move forward through a system of spatially connected colonies C1, C2, C3, ·· ·each containing susceptible individuals. Upper and lower bounding processes are considered, to establish bounds on the asymptotic velocity of forward spread of the infection through these spatially connected colonies. These bounds are shown to be asymptotically equivalent under certain conditions, and some simulations reveal other features of the process.