«DIARISK» — the first national prediabetes and diabetes mellitus type 2 risk calculator

Abstract

BACKGRAUND: The need to create a national questionnaire for screening the population for disorders of carbohydrate metabolism.AIMS: Develop a highly specific and sensitive questionnaire-calculator of the risk of prediabetes (PreD) and diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2T) based on depersonalized data of individuals who have these diagnoses confirmed in the national epidemiological study NATION.METHODS: The express method of prediabetes (PreD) and diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2T) risks has been created, validated and proposed for clinical usage for the first time in the Russian Federation, it was based of NATION epidemiologic study database (more than 26 000 participants). The following mathematical instruments have been used: mathematic modelling, main components methodology, binary variables, correlation analysis and single-factor analysis of variance.RESULTS: Highest coefficients of logistic regression for PreD (p<0.05) were identified for age — ≥52 years old for women and ≥59 years old for men (1,48); body mass index ≥31 (0.75); waist circumference ≥100 сm for women and ≥112 cm for men (0.90). In the same time coefficients for DM2T were for for age — ≥52 years old for women and ≥59 years old for men (1,24); body mass index ≥31 (1,19), high blood fasting glucose analysis in the past (1,37); waist circumference / hip circumference ratio ≥0.85 for women and ≥0.92 for men (1,05), high blood pressure (0.69). Correlation coefficients were taken into account and score has been used for specialized questionnaire creation. Sensitivity and specificity for PreD were 83,8% and 59,3% accordingly, for DM2T — 85,4% and 73,6% accordingly. DM2T may be suspected when total score of questionnaire is 11 and higher, and PreD — when total score will be ≥7 and <11.CONCLUSIONS: The calculator based on questionnaire (DIARISK) allows to separate of potential patient for PreD and DM2T confirmation during first examination or dispanserization. A patent for innovation has been issued.