Risks of the Development of the Economy of Ukraine in the Wartime Conditions: The Impact on the Agricultural Sector

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to identify the risks of agricultural development in Ukraine in the context of wartime, to substantiate the economic consequences of the impact of the Russian invasion and the introduction of martial law on the logistics system in the agrarian sector. In the context of the carried out study, the problems faced by agricultural producers in the context of the wartime situation in Ukraine (problems caused by the occupation and hostilities in a large part of the country; disruption of food supply chains and resources necessary for agricultural work; problems for the development of agricultural production as a result of the financial crisis; problems caused by the development of the energy crisis) are identified and systematized. Risks to the agricultural producers’ activities are identified (reduced supply and demand for food products; reduced liquidity of agricultural producers, difficulty in accessing financing; undermining of agricultural land and damage to crops as a result of hostilities; difficulty in purchasing seeds, breeding livestock and poultry, fertilizers, machinery, fuel and lubricants; disruption of value chains and logistics chains; shortage of labor in the agrarian sector). The article emphasizes the ways to mitigate the risks in the context of implementing mechanisms for preventing and/or overcoming such problems by establishing cooperation between Ukraine, the EU and international organizations. The author substantiates the need to change approaches to the further development of the agricultural sector in the areas of development of «short» value chains and logistics, to focus on the decentralized local food production systems, adaptation of conditions and traditions of agriculture to new conditions. Prospects for further research lie in a detailed analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of agricultural development in Ukraine, taking into account the elaborated guidelines.