Statistical distribution models for migratory fish in Jacuí basin, South Brazil

Abstract

The aim of the present study was to identify the distribution patterns of migratory fishes in the Jacuí river basin (Rio Grande do Sul, South Brazil), proposing a statistical model of presumed distribution based on geomorphologic environmental data. Through maps of occurrence probability, we hope to contribute to decisions regarding basin environmental management. The analyzed species were: Salminus brasiliensis (dourado), Leporinus obtusidens (piava), Prochilodus lineatus (grumatã) and Pimelodus pintado (pintado). Samples were made through interviews with fishermen and local inhabitants, covering the main channel and tributaries of the rivers Jacuí, Taquari-Antas, Vacacaí, Vacacaí-Mirim, Pardo, Pardinho, Sinos, and Caí. The sampling program resulted in 204 interviews, being 187 considered as valid in 155 different sampling points. The probability of migratory fish occurrence was adjusted through the LOGIT routine of the Idrisi Andes Software: P = e(b0 + b1 . altitude + b2 . basin area) . (1 + e(b0 + b1 . altitude + b2 . basin area))-1, where P is the occurrence probability of the species (0-1) and b0, b1 and b2 are the equation parameters. Model accuracy, for estimating presence, ranged from 82% to 93%. Pimelodus pintado was cited to occur in 121 points among the 155 sampled (78.06%), Prochilodus lineatus in 72 (46.45%), L. obtusidens in 62 (40.00%) and S. brasiliensis in 58 (37.42%). Equation parameters were estimated (± standard error) as follow: S. brasiliensis: b0 = -2.8762 ± 0.2597; b1 = 1.3028 ± 0.0332; b2 = 1.1487 ± 0.0301; L. obtusidens: b0 = -0.8364 ± 0.2213; b1 = -1.5564 ± 0.0462; b2 = 0.9947 ± 0.0206; Prochilodus lineatus: b0= 0; b1= -1.3067 ± 0.0544; b2= 0.8128 ± 0.0177; Pimelodus pintado: b0= -0.9487 ± 0.3688; b1= -0.8269 ± 0.0496; b2= 0.9255 ± 0.0304.