A Decadal Trend Analysis of Measles Cases in Rajasthan and Future Prediction using ARIMA Model: An Observational Study

Abstract

Introduction: Measles, a highly transmissible disease marked by fever and a maculopapular rash, posed a substantial threat to life in the 1960s. Nevertheless, the advent of the measles vaccine had a profound impact, significantly diminishing its toll on mortality. Similarly, through effective influenza surveillance and early epidemic warning systems, public health officials can timely identify influenza trends and provide crucial scientific support for prevention and control measures. This proactive approach holds great public health significance. Aim: To analyse the long-term trend of measles cases in Rajasthan, India, and the impact of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) on it, with future predictions using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling. Materials and Methods: The present study was a retrospective, descriptive observational study in which monthly diagnosed measles cases were collected from the Measles Rubella Laboratory, Department of Microbiology, Sawai Man Singh Medical College, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, for the period of April 2010 to April 2023. An ARIMA model was developed using data from 2010 to 2020 to predict the monthly number of measles cases in 2021. The predicted values were then compared to the actual cases in 2021 to assess the model’s accuracy. Results: Out of the total positive cases, males were slightly more prone to acquire infection than females (1734 males, 54%; 1477 females, 46%). The monthly index for new measles cases ranged from 0.11 to 2.6. It reached its lowest point in July (0.106) and August (0.25) and peaked in March (2.594) and April (1.84). The overall trend was fluctuating; however, the incidence of measles cases clearly increased after the year 2021. The difference between observed cases and predicted cases for the period of April 2020 to December 2021 was not statistically significant (t-value=0.261 and p-value=0.797). Conclusion: The fluctuating trend of measles was observed during the last decade; however, the observed cases of measles showed an upward trajectory during and after the COVID-19 outbreak. This study also highlighted the monthly index of the measles cases, which peaked in March to April and was lowest in July to August.