Russia’s Relations with the Korean Peninsula States in Perspective

Abstract

The article assesses prospects for the development of relations between the Russian Federation and the Korean Peninsula states in the short and medium terms. By assessing their current state in the context of global changes in the world, the authors determine areas where the national interests of Russia, North Korea and South Korea overlap, identify factors that can influence the development of relations between Russia and these states (primarily bilateral, but also taking into account the third party’s influence on them), and consider possible trajectories for their further evolution. The article concludes that in the short term, relations between Russia and South Korea will tend to deteriorate, although the speed of this deterioration will depend on the steps to be taken by Seoul. Relations between Moscow and Pyongyang, on the contrary, will formally improve, although the speed of this improvement will be determined, among other things, by the situation around the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue.