Individualized survival prediction and surgery recommendation for patients with glioblastoma

Abstract

BackgroundThere is a lack of individualized evidence on surgical choices for glioblastoma (GBM) patients.AimThis study aimed to make individualized treatment recommendations for patients with GBM and to determine the importance of demographic and tumor characteristic variables in the selection of extent of resection.MethodsWe proposed Balanced Decision Ensembles (BDE) to make survival predictions and individualized treatment recommendations. We developed several DL models to counterfactually predict the individual treatment effect (ITE) of patients with GBM. We divided the patients into the recommended (Rec.) and anti-recommended groups based on whether their actual treatment was consistent with the model recommendation.ResultsThe BDE achieved the best recommendation effects (difference in restricted mean survival time (dRMST): 5.90; 95% confidence interval (CI), 4.40–7.39; hazard ratio (HR): 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65–0.77), followed by BITES and DeepSurv. Inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW)-adjusted HR, IPTW-adjusted OR, natural direct effect, and control direct effect demonstrated better survival outcomes of the Rec. group.ConclusionThe ITE calculation method is crucial, as it may result in better or worse recommendations. Furthermore, the significant protective effects of machine recommendations on survival time and mortality indicate the superiority of the model for application in patients with GBM. Overall, the model identifies patients with tumors located in the right and left frontal and middle temporal lobes, as well as those with larger tumor sizes, as optimal candidates for SpTR.